Republican Candidates Battle It Out In New Hampshire

Monday, December 03, 2007

Nov. 1, 2007 (KGO) -- It's a long way from California, but New Hampshire's Republican primary race is giving us a glimpse into the campaigns that will eventually head west. How will their process impact our choices?

Most of the time it's Democratic candidates that have the biggest battles over New Hampshire. This time it looks to be the Republicans. Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney and former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani are currently out in front, with Senator John McCain trying to close.

Of the top four contenders for the GOP nomination, Senator John McCain is spending the most time and effort in New Hampshire.

"He is essentially here every other week, every10 to 14 days," says Michael Denney, McCain's senior national adviser.

Dennehy says the most important thing for McCain or any candidate in New Hampshire is meeting people one on one.

"A minimum of one to two times, probably three or four before they make a decision and that's no exaggeration," says Dennehy.

In 2000, John McCain won New Hampshire, but 19 days later in South Carolina he lost and eventually lost the nomination. This time around more primaries are crowding into January which Dennehy believes is a good thing.

"Before his victory in New Hampshire he had been down 30 to 35 points in South Carolina. The next day he was even with George W. Bush, then Governor Bush," says Dennehy. ""If the election had been one week later, John McCain probably would have won and he would likely have been the nominee and could have been the president of the United States."

At least that's how the McCain campaign hopes it plays this time.

Mitt Romney's campaign is also going the traditional route with a twist.

"There is a way to run a New Hampshire campaign and the governor is doing it the right way," says Jim Merrill, Romney's New Hampshire campaign director.

Merrill says Romney's "ask me anything" town hall meetings are working. Romney is leading in the Republican polls.

"Shaking hands and talking to people at 10-person, 100-person or 500-person events, that's the way you do it. You earn it with sweat equity," says Merrill.

And the voters Romney is courting are the party's base. We knew that when we asked his state chair to tell us what the two biggest New Hampshire issues are.

Jim Merrill: "I really think it's tax and spending up here and immigration. Obviously Iraq is in there, too, but New Hampshire is a pocketbook state."

Mark Matthews: "Immigration in New Hampshire is bigger than Iraq in New Hampshire?"

Jim Merrill: "I'd say it's on a par, absolutely."

Well, that is absolutely not what our team of U.C. researchers found as they canvassed New Hampshire voters. After a week on the ground in New Hampshire, I asked them to list what the voters considered the big three. They listed the war, economy and health care.

Immigration tops the list only with the most conservative of New Hampshire's GOP.

"I think it's an issue that over a period of months, really, was something the base was very agitated about and interested in," says Merrill.

So Romney's campaign is appealing to the GOP's base in New Hampshire, while his nearest rival is appealing to more moderate Republicans.

"The typical New Hampshire voter right now is fiscally very conservative. They're socially much more moderate than they were even 10 or 15 years ago," says Wayne Semprini, Giuliani's New Hampshire campaign chariman.

Semprini says Giuliani is running a nationwide campaign, and if he doesn't spend as much time in New Hampshire as some of his rivals, that's because New Hampshire is not as critical to the Giuliani campaign.

"It appears that it's Iowa, New Hampshire or bust for come candidates, but that's not the case for Mayor Giuliani," says Semprini.

And it's apparently not the case for Fred Thompson either. Thompson filed his campaign papers in New Hampshire this week. It was only his second visit to the state since announcing his candidacy. When we visited his campaign headquarters in Manchester, a technician was pulling in telephone wires. The were no phones or computers set up. Compare that to other campaigns that have already logged hundreds of thousands of phone calls to New Hampshire voters.

"Most of the other candidates get in way too early and spent way too much money and didn't have a whole heck of a lot to show for it," says Bill Cahill, an advisor to Fred Thompson's campaign.

The day we talked with Cahill, the man who was slated to be Thompson's New Hampshire campaign chairman resigned, saying he thought Thompson had given up on the state.

"If Thompson was giving up on New Hampshire, I wouldn't be doing this interview with you right now," says Cahill.

Thompson's national campaign manager told the Wall Street Journal the campaign is looking towards South Carolina and the southern state primaries.

This week on a visit to Northern California, Thompson told us, "we've spent more time in some states than others right now. The ones we haven't spent much as time in, we'll be spending more time in and that's the way it works."

Well, for Thompson it's not working yet. He's running fifth. Nationally Thompson is in second. So New Hampshire isn't a big deal for him. However, the granite state has a history of thrusting its choice into the national lead, that's why we've spent this past week paying attention to New Hampshire.

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