Experts: Somalia Conflict Could Widen

Dec. 26 - KGO (KGO) -- Experts are worried the fighting in the horn of Africa could explode into a larger conflict. Ethiopian troops continue their assault on Islamic leaders in Somalia, trying to seize control from the internationally recognized government.

Ethiopia says it's almost accomplished its mission, which started Saturday by invading Somalia and declaring war on the council of Islamic Courts which was taking over the country.

Amb. David Fischer, San Francisco State University: "They certainly are Islamists. They hope to create an Islamic-based government, and they have within them some pretty nasty people -- people who are really affiliated with al Qaeda."

Ambassador David Fischer, who's served in Tanzania and the Seychelles, is now diplomat in residence at San Francisco State University. He's concerned the conflict could grow into a regional war.

Amb. David Fischer, San Francisco State University: "If it's allowed to go on, other countries, such as little places Americans have never heard of -- called Djibouti; all the way to big places that Americans have heard of -- Kenya -- could quickly get involved in this conflict."

The Christian-led Ethiopian government has gone to war against Islamists in Somalia.

Letitia Lawson, Naval Postgraduate School: "I think, fundamentally, it is not about religion for either side."

Letitia Lawson is senior lecturer at the Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey, and an expert on sub-Saharan Africa.

Islamic leaders gained a foothold in Somalia six months ago, taking over the capital city of Mogadishu, and other areas. They brought some order to a country in chaos, ruled by warlords -- but also an Islamic movement that concerned neighboring Ethiopia.

Letitia Lawson, Naval Postgraduate School: "They do feel, I think, legitimately threatened by the Islamist movement in Somalia. And their position has been that the internationally recognized government, which is based out of Baidoa -- and controls really nothing except Baidoa -- must be the government of Somalia."))

As many as 1,000 people have been killed, and another 3,000 wounded in the fighting as Ethiopian troops overwhelmed the Islamic militias.

Militia troops are vowing to launch a new phase, suggesting guerilla warfare and suicide bombings. Ethiopia, however, is already preparing to pull back.

Amb. David Fischer, San Francisco State University: "I'm a believer in diplomacy. There are situations where diplomacy doesn't work, but this is one where I think it might be more effective than military arms."

The United Nations Security Council has called an emergency meeting for next Tuesday to discuss the crisis.

Tuesday in Washington, the State Department signaled support for Ethiopian military operations against Somalia. A State Department spokesman said Ethiopia has had "genuine security concerns."

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