Intelligence Estimate: Al Qaeda Threat Growing

SAN FRANCISCO, Jul. 17, 2007 (KGO) (KGO) -- The latest assessment from U.S. intelligence agencies finds al Qaeda is gaining strength and planning attacks on the United States. That report was delivered to the White House Tuesday.

First, Homeland Security Chief Michael Chertoff said he had a gut feeling that al Qaeda might attack this summer. Then the president said it wasn't true that al Qaeda was back as strong as ever. Now the U.S. intelligence agencies are saying al Qaeda has regained its command and control and is plotting to hit the U.S.

It's a grim forecast from the national intelligence agencies. Al Qaeda training camps are increasing along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border and

Mike McConnell, Director of National Intelligence: "The intent clearly stated is mass casualties. Mass casualties larger than 9/11."

The National Intelligence Estimate, or NIE, puts the White House on the defensive, asserting that moving forces from Afghanistan to Iraq was not a good call.

Richard Clark is a former counter terrorism expert for both Presidents Clinton and George W. Bush.

Richard Clarke, Former National Security Official/ABC News Consultant: "If you read between the lines, the NIE says things have gotten worse for us, things have gotten better for al Qaeda."

National security expert Michael Nacht says diverting our attention to Iraq gave al Qaeda room to breathe.

Prof. Michael Nacht, Ph.D., U.C. Goldman School: "Not only breathing space to al Qaeda, but giving them this great opportunity to recruit, to invest, to train."

The dean of U.C. Berkeley's Goldman School of Public Policy believes the U.S. is tied down in Iraq. The president says Iraq is the central front on the war on terror. Today, former U.N. Ambassador John Bolton told me, don't under estimate U.S. capabilities.

John Bolton, Former U.N. Ambassador: "We can certainly do what we need to do in Iraq and also prosecute the broader war against al Qaeda and radical Islamic terrorism around the world."

But according to the NIE report, for the past five years we have not done that.

President Bush has given Pakistan's president Musharraf five years and $10 billion dollars to clear out al Qaeda. It hasn't happened.

Prof. Michael Nacht: "I think what's a little bit unknown is the degree to which we've really pressed Musharraf to do this."

Professor Nacht fears Pakistan could go the way of Iran.

Prof. Michael Nacht: "We have to realize that we're dealing here with a leader who is very much in a tenuous position who also controls nuclear weapons. So that makes it even more dicey."

Dean Nacht says it may be the administration is faced with the choice to go after Bin Laden in a big way and risk the overthrow of Musharraff and the creation of another Islamic fundamentalist state -- only this one would have nuclear weapons -- or don't go after Bin Laden and watch al Qaeda grow.

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