Forecast

ACCUWEATHER: Winter storm warning

Updated at 10:09 PM today

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accuweather, winter, winter storm, cold weather, snow, freezing rain, ice storm, nor'easter, flooding, rain, forecast

NEW YORK (WABC) -- Snow began falling across parts of the area Tuesday night, and by the time it's all said and done, this one will be considered a blizzard or near blizzard for much of our area.

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As we said yesterday, while the moisture with this storm, at least initially, is not as impressive as the past storm, the dynamics are actually more potent. As of 1 pm, the main surface low was centered over southwestern Ohio. However, pressures are caving in along the South Carolina coast.... Myrtle Beach reported a 9.9 mbpressure fall in just three hours ending at 1 pm! The atmosphere and the surface obs are showing us where the secondary low wants to develop. This low will deepen explosively as it heads northeastward tonight, becoming the main storm as the primary low fills somewhere near the PA-OH-WV border.

As we have been saying, this is an extremely "ripe" situation with the upper level low rolling eastward, heading across the Virginias and eventually pushing off of the Mid-Atlantic coast. Not knowing anything else but the fact that a closed low would belly underneath us, and a powerful coastal storm would form and track to our south and east, climatology and basic meteorology would tell you that a big snowfall is going to occur here. That is due to the massive height falls, great upper level diffluence, and strong cyclonic curvature once the low deepens enough. The tricky part of this storm is trying to figure out just how the upward motion field will be distributed, and where the deformation zone sets up the heaviest bands of snow. One thing that does look at tad different today compared to yesterday is that the area that mixes with and changes to rain for a time will be farther north...probably up into coastal southern NJ, and maybe even a tad farther than that. Sleet could mix in for a short while almost as far north and west as Washington, Baltimore, Wilmington, Philly, and Nassau County, Long Island. Snow accumulations will definitely be cut back somewhat across the Delmarva Peninsula and the Jersey Shore, and that could even be the case on the eastern tip of Long Island and extreme southeast New England.