Poll: 6th and 8th District races dead heats

October 29, 2006 (WLS) -- With control of Congress up for grabs come Election Day, two races in Illinois could decide if Republicans hold the majority or the Democrats win it. An exclusive ABC7, Daily Herald poll shows both races are statistical dead heats.

Both of these congressional districts, the 6th in west suburban DuPage County and the 8th in the far north and northwest suburbs, are predominantly Republican. But a majority of the voters in both districts say the country's going in the wrong direction under GOP leadership and that helps the democratic candidates. Incumbent congresswoman Melissa Bean in the 8th, and Iraq war veteran Tammy Duckworth in the 6th. So both races are up for grabs in our exclusive ABC7 - Daily Herald poll.

Republican Peter Roskam, a well-known state senator and trial lawyer from Wheaton who was endorsed from the get-go by longtime congressman Henry Hyde who's retiring, has a narrow lead over disabled helicopter pilot Tammy Duckworth. Duckworth is a democrat from Hoffman Estates but in predominantly Republican DuPage County Roskam's only ahead by 4 points in our poll. 46-42 with 12 percent undecided, but with a 4 percent margin of error, it's a dead heat statistically.

"If people think things are headed in the right direction, they're gonna vote for the Republican candidate, and if people think things are headed on the wrong track they've gonna vote Democratic," said ABC 7 Pollster Richard Day.

Duckworth is making it race in a traditionally safe GOP district because only 36 percent of the voters say the country's heading in the right direction. While 54 percent say it's on the wrong track. And those voters favor Duckworth over Roskam 67--to-22, a margin of 3-to-1.

Peter Powell of Wheaton is one of those voters. "She's a war veteran, she's been there, and I'm going to give my benefit of the doubt to that candidate over someone who wants to stay the course," Powell said.

The other predominantly Republican district, the 8th, which includes Cook, Lake, and McHenry counties north and northwest of Chicago has a slightly different dynamic because the incumbent is Democrat Melissa Bean who upset GOP veteran Phil Crane two years ago and worked hard to win over moderate Republicans like Beverly Peterson.

"I think she's represented us very well. She's worked hard and did what she said she was going to do," said voter Bevery Peterson.

Bean, like Duckworth, is also benefiting from the strong support of voters who don't like the direction the county's heading in. But she's only leading Republican David McSweeney by 3 points in our poll. 42-to-39. Another dead heat with a 4 percent margin of error. In part because Bill Scheurer, aliberal who's running as an anti-war third party candidate, has 8 percent and he may be attracting voters who would otherwise support Bean.

"As Ralph Nader took votes away from Al Gore in 2000 to give Florida to George Bush, Bill Scheurer could take just enough votes that would otherwise go to Melissa Bean and help elect Dave McSweeney," said ABC 7 Pollster Richard Day.

The race could be decided by independent voters who favor Bean by a sizeable margin over McSweeney. 41-to-13. But Scheurer is getting 20 percent of those votes and 26 percent are still undecided.

The poll was conducted by Richard Day Research of Evanston. 500 likely voters in each district were interviewed by phone a week ago. And here's an interesting foonote: the congressional page scandal that's been such a big political story is pretty much of a non-issue in these congressional races. And immigration's not nearly as important to the voters as the negative ads would lead you to believe.

You can read more on the 6th and 8th district races in Monday's Daily Herald or at: www.dailyherald.com.

Be sure to tune in to ABC7 News on Monday at 6 PM for the poll results in the race for Illinois Governor. Then at 10 PM we'll look at the poll results in the race for Cook County Board President.

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