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AccuWeather Chat Transcript - 12.9.2005

Wednesday, December 14, 2005

AccuWeather meteorologists were busy, answering the questions you submitted during our online chat. Find out what they see for the winter ahead.

CHAT TRANSCRIPT:

<font color=#940000>WPVI (06:42 EST):</font> That's all of the questions we're going to be able to answer tonight. Thank you for participating and we hope you'll be back for the next chat event at 6abc.com!

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Winston J (05:53 EST): Why does the thermometer read well below freezing but we still get rain?

Ken Reeves - Expert Senior Meteorologist; Director, Forecasting Operations: What falls from the sky is more determined by the temperatures in the lowest 5,000 feet of the atmosphere than just the surface temperature. Generally in the winter, precipitation above 5,000 feet is in the form of snow at our latitude. The amount of the lower atmosphere above freezing determines whether it remains as snow (no above freezing) or goes completely to rain. Cold air, being more dense, likes to hold on at the surface. So it can warm above freezing enough that the cold layer right at the ground is not thick enough for the rain drops to refreeze (sleet). Some of the worst ice storms occur in just the situation you describe.

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Carla (05:57 EST): I was wondering if we are going to have as much snow as we did in 2005.

Bernie Rayno - Expert Senior Meteorologist: After having to shovel the snow this morning I hope not!!!!!!!!!!

Last year the Philadelphia area received around 31 inches of snow. However, at least half of that snow fell between Feb 15 and Mar 15. It is interesting to note that there was virtually no snow in December.

After today's snow we are almost a third of last year's total!!!!

My answer to you question is yes, I believe that we will have a very similar snow total as last years.

Stay warm and thanks for the question.

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Dana (05:49 EST): I know you guys are good at making weather predictions and I was wondering if you had a prediction on the outcome of the Orange Bowl?
We Are.......Penn State

Steve Smith - Meteorologist; Director, Systems Engineering: While prognostication is something that I do for a living, I would like to think I can use that talent in other areas. In the case of the Orange Bowl, temperatures in Miami typically run in the middle 70s. While it's a little to early to pinpoint exactly what the weather will be on Jan 3, here's hoping the skies are blue and white during the day for anyone traveling to the game and the evening turns out to be a Blue and White event as well!

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Sarah Boucas-Neto (05:56 EST): I never heard of the el Nino or el Nina until the 1990's. Is it related to global warming or the Krakatoa volcano in Indonesia? Thanks

Elliot Abrams - Chief Meteorologist; Senior Vice President: Actually, there are a number of historical books describing both types events back many centuries. For example, drought caused by such an event was implicated in the failure of the first British colony in Virginia in the 1500s. Go to Google and type in "el Nino in history." There are a number of sources there that can help you realize this is nothing new.

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Rich Smith (05:49 EST): Could you ask Steve to look at the camera so his Grandmom can see him. >Thanks.

Ken Reeves - Expert Senior Meteorologist; Director, Forecasting Operations: Sorry, we got the message a bit too late. Perhaps next time!

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Kelly (05:53 EST): Will the shore points get more snow this winter?

Alex Sosnowski - Expert Senior Meteorologist: Shore Points... The odds are likely there will be more snow over the course of the winter at the shore. Considering that you got snow so early with water temperatures as warm as they have been and the current storm track continues, odds favor you will get more snow events this season. Generally as ocean temperatures drop steadily into March, the odds increase of getting more snow and less rain. However, there can still be more storms that you get rain or a snow to rain situation over the next couple of months. It takes a while for the ocean to get cold.

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Winter Warlock (05:41 EST): When will south jersey see a significant amount of snow?

Ken Reeves - Expert Senior Meteorologist; Director, Forecasting Operations: Winter,
The event that moved through this past weekend put down better snow in South Jersey than from the city north and west. At this time of year, big storms can bring in milder air from the Atlantic (47 degrees) very easily. That is why there was rain and sleet in much of South jersey today as the storm moved northward. As the ocean cools, bigger storms can produce some snow closer to the coast. The past weekend was a case of a very weak storm which could not bring in the warm from the ocean.

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Tommy (05:46 EST): Why do you like to be a meteorologist?

Bernie Rayno - Expert Senior Meteorologist: Sometimes I ask myself this question when a forecast doesn't exactly go as planned. (ha..ha...)

I love being a meteorologist since the atmosphere is so fascinating to me. To this day, at the age of 38, I still watch the rain and snow fall. I still excited by a storm or thunderstorms.

Most meteorologists have wanted to be a meteorologist from childhood so in many cases it is a calling.

I could not imagine not being a meteorologist.

Thanks for the question.....

Bernie Rayno

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Jaime: Besides TV news, what are other career options for meteorologists with a 4-year degree?

Steve Smith - Meteorologist; Director, Systems Engineering:Hi Jamie!

A meteorology degree can be used in a variety of ways. For example, AccuWeather employs meteorologists for all types of careers ranging from a specialized forecaster to radio broadcaster to other roles such as computer programming or customer service. Since our business is all about the weather, having knowledge of meteorology is a must in what we do every day! In addition to commercial weather companies, meteorologists are employed by the armed services to support troop operations. In addition, the federal government employs a number of meteorologists for a variety of agencies from NASA to NOAA. Weather impacts all of lives and this creates plenty of career opportunities along with TV broadcasting for those with a 4 year degree in meteorology.

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Gregory Fratantaro: In relation to the very active and strong Hurricane season, as well as other record breaking heat and you also stated the potential for a larger than usually snow season. Do you feel that the northern hemisphere could be headed towards a mini ice age, as that of the revolutionary war times, when rivers such as the Delaware would freeze over. And also do u feel this could lead to a larger ice age, such as the one some 10,000 years ago?

Elliot Abrams - Chief Meteorologist: Actually, around the time of the Revolutionary War, only two of the winters were extremely cold. That's a good thing. In 1775, Ethan Allen and his troops were able to haul canons across the Berkshires because it was not a terribly snowy winter. The winter at Valley Forge wasn't too snowy or extremely cold wither. In 1780, however it was so cold they were able to drag artillery across the frozen water from New Jersey to New York City. In January of 1777, George Washington's use of weather knowledge helped him realize it was going to freeze on the night that Cornwallis and company had him backed up against the Delaware. He told his troops to build big bonfires to make it appear they were going to camp for the night. As soon as it got dark and the ground froze, Washington's forces attacked and defeated the surprised British.

I do not see any evidence we are heading into any kind of new ice age. However, I don't think the science of predicting the onset of one is advanced enough that we would really know it if one was coming.

Elliot Abrams

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Tim: I have heard that this years winter will be colder than normal from one source and warmer than normal from another source, and the same thing goes for the precipitation prediction. I live in Southeastern Pennsylvania (Bucks County) and was wondering what Accuweather's forecast is for this upcoming winter?

Ken Reeves - Expert Senior Meteorologist; Director, Forecasting Operations: Tim,
We do quite a bit of work on the long range forecast going out as long as 4 or 5 months. We have a detailed description of how this forecast is created on our subscription site pro.accuweather.com. There are quite a few indications that the winter will bias toward colder than normal in eastern Pennsylvania (about 2 degrees below normal). The signals are not as strong toward snowfall but we believe that snowfall will be in that 125% of normal area, which is higher for you in Bucks County than in the city. We do not make precipitation forecasts since snowfall amount has far more impact than the amount of rain and melted snow.

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<font color=#940000>WPVI:</font> We're going to have to end the "taking questions" portion of the chat now, but there are still plenty of questions and answers in the pipeline that have yet to be published . Stay logged on to see if your question appears or check back to this page later! Thanks again for participating in the Action News AccuWeather chat!!!

cathy westrom : what are the chances of having good ski weather in Vermont in mid March?

Alex Sosnowski - Expert Senior Meteorologist: As per the Vermont ski question.... The climate in Vermont is significantly colder than over southeastern Pennsylvania and generally the Poconos. Vermont is of coarse farther north and closer to the big cold air source in Canada. The ocean to the east is at its coldest point in March, so the favored form of precipitation is snow that time of the year. Odds favor plenty of snow on the ground in a typical March up there. Its a bit too early to speculate on the overall details of the early spring at this point, but temperatures are expected to average below normal through February up there, that argues for snow on the ground at the resorts. By the way there is plenty of snow on the ground now from the Poconos through New England so why wait?

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(16619) Darrell McKinney (05:33 EST): When is the next chance of a heavy snow ?

(4701) Bernie Rayno - Expert Senior Meteorologist; Executive Producer, Video Broad: I don't know about you, but I am already tired of snow!!!! Lets define heavy snow as accumulations of 6 inches or more.... Although the next 5-7 days temperatures will average below normal (normal high 46), there is not going to be a major snowfall. The next opportunity for a major snowfall will probably not be until the later half of this month...Notice I used the term "opportunity" which means the next chance... Thanks for the question.

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(16626) Linda Smith (05:37 EST): There is an old saying about it "being too cold to snow". Is there any validity to that?

(4700) Steve Smith - Meteorologist; Director, Systems Engineering: Hi Linda! This is an old saying that does have some truth behind it. Typically, when it is 'really cold' it is a result of an area of arctic high pressure that is entrenched over the region. High pressure regions carry very little moisture with them and as such they do not bring snow. Also, as the temperature gets colder, the amount of moisture the air can 'hold' decreases. An example of this is northern Alaska or Siberia where blizzard conditions occur with arctic storms, where temperatures are well below zero and wind is gusting at over 50 mph but typically these storms produce less than an inch of snow. So, yes, it can be too cold to snow!

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(16620) Elaine (05:34 EST): What's the difference between a watch, warning, or an advisory?

(4699) Ken Reeves - Expert Senior Meteorologist; Director, Forecasting Operations: At AccuWeather, we try to talk about impact and affects of the weather and prefer not to get caught into the National Weather Service lingo that does not really tell you what you are going to have to deal with. Typically, they issue watches 36 to 48 hours in advance of the event and then issue a warning or advisory depending on the rules they have established. The warnings are usually a bigger event than the advisory although they do not have warnings for all events. There are fog advisories that can be issued during events that are causing major travel disruption because there are no fog warnings. However, there are frost warnings. Go figure!

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(16622) Candy Kean (05:36 EST): Why does it seem that many times, storms come barreling across the country, arrive in this area and completely fall apart? I have always thought this was because of our proximity to both the shore and mountains. Is that correct?

(4698) Elliot Abrams - Chief Meteorologist; Senior Vice President: We get most of our precipitation when a storm center passes south of us or when a new storm develops off Virginia as a dying storm approaches from the west. When big storms cross the country, they typically start heading northeast. This means they pass north of us. In those cases, we only get a cold frontal passage with rain that may last only a short time. The shore and mountains play important roles in our weather, but don't really cause storms to die.

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(16606) Darren (05:20 EST): How much snow is going to fall this mouth...

(4697) Bernie Rayno - Expert Senior Meteorologist; Executive Producer, Video Broad: Darren, Thanks for the question. So far this month we have received a little under 7 inches of snow. Your AccuWeather forecast is not calling for any significant snow over the next 5 to 7 days which would keep the amount near 7 inches by the middle of the month. Forecasting is not only understanding the physics of the atmosphere but playing odds. As a result, my bet is that Philadelphia will receive about 13 inches of snow this month...

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(16616) Bill (05:31 EST): What was our average snow accumulation today. I was chatting with a friend in Canton , CT who got approx 16 inches in just a 6-7 hour period!

(4696) Alex Sosnowski - Expert Senior Meteorologist: Philadelphia city got between 2 and 3 inches with the nearby northern suburbs picking up 4-5 inches. Over northern Bucks and Montgomery counties got between 7 and 9 inches. The heaviest band of snow with this one was from the Poconos to northwest Connecticut to central Mass to southern Maine.

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(16609) Dana (05:27 EST): I know that AccuWeather is in State College and I was wondering if any of you graduated from Penn State?

(4695) Ken Reeves - Expert Senior Meteorologist; Director, Forecasting Operations: Every meteorologist participating in the chat this evening, including the attractive and telegenic Bernie Rayno, are Penn State graduates in meteorology. Elliot graduated '69 and '71, Alex Sosnowski and Ken Reeves graduated in 1983, Bernie Rayno in 1990, and Steve Smith in 1999. About 60% of operational meteorologists, of which we have 75, are Penn State graduates.

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(16610) Steve Pratt (05:27 EST): Are the past few weeks of unseasonably cold and wintry weather an ominous sign for the the upcoming winter?

(4694) Steve Smith - Meteorologist; Director, Systems Engineering: Hi Steve! It is true that has turned cold and been below normal now for the first 9 days of December. In general, AccuWeather.com meteorologists who focus on the long range forecast are predicting that temperatures will remain below normal this winter with precipitation running above normal. This combination should continue to provide for a greater potential for snowfall this season. However, throughout the winter season there will be spells of above normal temperatures. (Keep in mind, though, 39 degrees is the normal high for much of January in Philadelphia, and as such a temperature of 42 degrees is above normal!) But, over the course of the next 3 months, we believe temperatures should average below normal when the winter is done.

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(16605) Louise Aponte (05:20 EST): i live on the ocean block in atlantic city, we get alot of wind but our weather is so different from the rest of the deleware valley, why? and what do you see for us this winter. thank you

(4693) Alex Sosnowski - Expert Senior Meteorologist: The closer you are to the ocean, the more you will be influenced by the ocean. Water generally loses and gains heat more slowly than the air and the ground, so this tends to make the spring and early summers cooler and the fall and early winters warmer than Philadelphia. This is why it is so easy to see a change to rain in a snowstorm situation on the coast, verses back toward Philly. Ocean water temperatures are now in the lower 40s and were recently still in the 50s! This has had a great impact in slowing the arrival of winter. Often a warm spring day in Philly can be raw and chilly at the beach. This is because the warm air over Philly is rising and acting as a vacuum, drawing in the chilly ocean cooled air at the coast. Water temperatures in the mid-spring are usually in the 40s and 50s! The best time at the beach is usually in the early fall when water temperatures are still warm and hence the nights are still mild.

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(16601) SEAMUS (05:15 EST): WHEN IS THE NEXT SNOW STORM

(4692) Elliot Abrams - Chief Meteorologist; Senior Vice President: First of all, it is not coming before at least the middle of next week. Some computer models are suggesting one late next week, but there is also an indication that we will be near the snow-rain line. This means we will not know for sure 'til later next week.

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(16598) Andy WIlson (05:14 EST): I am origionally from the uk and over there a heavy frost is common in the am hours I was wondering why that is not so common over here?

(4691) Bernie Rayno - Expert Senior Meteorologist; Executive Producer, Video Broad: A heavy frost will and can occur at any location across our planet when the weather conditions are favorable. The favorable conditions include *Temperature at or below 32F *A clear sky *Little or no wind *Off course frost occurs at night (no sun) Depending on the exact location across the U.K., those conditions generally are more prevalent across the U.K. than the Philadelphia.

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(16603) Marc Johnson (05:17 EST): Are we stuck in a weather pattern, where we expereince snow storms every week?

(4690) Steve Smith - Meteorologist; Director, Systems Engineering: Hi Marc! As you allude to, an active weather pattern is a common occurrence during the late Fall, Winter and Spring. The reason behind this sort of pattern is related directly to the "fight" between cold, arctic air to the north and warm, moist air to the south. When a pattern becomes active, the cold air is constantly pushing south. Where this air mass meets the warm, moist air is where storms will develop. For example, today in Philadelphia, we had warm, moist Gulf of Mexico moisture ride north yesterday and meet with a Canadian air mass coming south. The cold air had been entrenched over the past 8 days and the result of this was snow! Looking ahead over the next 15 days, this type of pattern will continue with the next potential for a storm coming Wednesday or Thursday of next week.

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(16602) Alexandra Wilson (05:15 EST): I am a Syracuse University broadcast journalism student, but recently decided I wanted to be an on-air meteorologist. What are the best options for getting my meteorology credentials? I have heard of Mississippi State's program but wanted to ask if there were other programs.

(4689) Elliot Abrams - Chief Meteorologist; Senior Vice President: Mississippi State has a good program, as does Ball State and Western Kentucky University. They are good because you get practical weather training without having to undergo the high powered math and physics that you may never use again. You need some of that to understand what is going on, but not the amount in a typical 4-year meteorology program. Penn State does have an excellent program and students take advantage of their own TV studio to learn and refine their skills. AccuWeather is 4 miles away from there and we offer some summer internships.

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(16600) Darren (05:15 EST): What kind of salt should we buy for a snow storm...One that will not damage your sidewalk....Thanks

(4688) Alex Sosnowski - Expert Senior Meteorologist: What kind of salt to buy? Well just about all ice melting compounds are destructive to sidewalks. The key is to use as little as possible and never use them on fresh concrete, one that has been paved in the past year. Concrete needs one year or so to cure properly. Rock salt is generally the cheapest, but the most destructive. Potassium chloride has shown to have less negative effects. Remember, all of these can discolor your new carpet, so be sure to take those shoes off at the doorway! Rock salt usually works at moderate temperatures near or just below freezing. The other compounds will work to some extent at lower temperatures, but generally none are very effective with temperatures in the teens. The best bet is to remove the snow before it is compacted and turns to ice. It's better for the environment and your sidewalk. Consider using anti skid (sand or cat litter) when it is very cold or as an alternate.

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(16589) George Wissnez (05:11 EST): This outbreak of cold and snow has arrived early for Philadelphia. Is it likely to stay this way for the rest of the winter season or should we expect a warming trend soon?

(4687) Steve Smith - Meteorologist; Director, Systems Engineering: Hi George! It is true that the weather has turned cold and been below normal now for the first 9 days of December. In general, AccuWeather.com meteorologists who focus on the long-range forecasts are predicting that temperatures will remain below normal this winter with precipitation running above normal. This combination should continue to provide for a greater potential for snowfall this season. However, during the winter, there will be days that are 'warmer' and above normal, but at the end of March, the average should turn out to be colder and snowier.

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(16594) Ron (05:11 EST): What was the water content of the snow this morning? Would that be something good for people to know (light vs. heavy snow)?

(4686) Ken Reeves - Expert Senior Meteorologist; Director, Forecasting Operations: It depended where you were in the Delaware Valley. In northern Bucks County, there was 8 inches of snow on about 0.35 of an inch of rain or about a 23 to 1 ratio. In Wilmington, it was more like a 10 or 8 to 1 ratio. There was rain and sleet mixed in from the city south and east which meant that the water content was higher. Much of that is determined by the temperature higher in the atmosphere where the snow crystals actually form rather than at the surface.

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(16599) Jaime Schulang (05:14 EST): Does the consitency of snow (whether it's powdery or wet) have an effect on snow accumlations?

(4685) Elliot Abrams - Chief Meteorologist; Senior Vice President: Powdery snow has a much higher air content and so for any given amount of water content, powdery snow will be deeper.

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(16595) Frank Fazio (05:12 EST): The orginal winter forecast for the philadelphia area was below normal snow fall and above average temps. What happened in the last 2 weeks and are you still forcasting a below normal snowfall winter and above average temps?

(4684) Elliot Abrams - Chief Meteorologist; Senior Vice President: We have actually been predicting a colder than normal winter and near-to above-normal snowfall. Nothing has happened to change our minds about that. The long range forecasting is not a proven thing with today's level of atmospheric science. However, our forecast of cold was partly based on comparisons with other years with high hurricane counts. 1995 had many storms and we had the blizzard in January of 96. 1933 had a high count and February 1934 brought the coldest day Philly saw in the 20th century. My mom lived in South Philadelphia at the time and used to tell me about how cold it was that morning walking to school.

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(16591) Andy (05:11 EST): what are the chances of a white christmas this year?

(4683) Bernie Rayno - Expert Senior Meteorologist; Executive Producer, Video Broad: First of all the definition of a white Christmas is at least a trace of snow on the ground or snow falling on Christmas Day. Historically there is a 20% of a White Christmas in Philadelphia. Given the current weather pattern I would rate the chance of a white Christmas as 30-50 %.

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(16593) Jaime Schulang (05:11 EST): What determines if precipitation falls as snow or sleet?

(4682) Alex Sosnowski - Expert Senior Meteorologist: Snow vs. sleet....During the winter and early spring, almost all precipitation starts off as snow, as the air aloft is very cold. That snowflake either survives the trip to the ground as snow, due to temperatures remaining below freezing throughout the trip to the ground, or melts after encountering a warm layer. If the air is below freezing near the ground it re-freezes into a ball of ice (sleet). If the air is near freezing but the ground is below freezing, the water droplet can freeze upon contact with the ground, hence freezing rain.

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(16585) aubrey (12:44 EST): Is there going to be a blizzard this month?

(4681) Steve Smith - Meteorologist; Director, Systems Engineering: Hi Aubrey! There will be a blizzard this month, in fact, we had *near* blizzard conditions today throughout portions of New England. The question of course, is where will it occur? But, I'm sure your question was based on whether there will be blizzard conditions occurring in Philadelphia this month. As you may know, a blizzard is really just a snow storm that contains specific conditions. For example, to be categorized as a blizzard the follow conditions are needed: 1) Winds 35 mph or greater 2) Snow falling or blowing snow that reduces visibility below 1/4 mile or less 3) These conditions need to occur for at least 3 hours. Surprising, how much snow that falls is not a criteria for a blizzard! So, we will have to wait and see if any snow storms that may occur this month meet this criteria! Typically, Philadelphia experiences blizzard conditions each year, however, they do not meet the true requirements of a blizzard since the conditions rarely last longer than an hour or two.

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(16587) Neigram (05:00 EST): How is snow measured and how is it comverted to measurable precipitation?

(4680) Elliot Abrams - Chief Meteorologist; Senior Vice President: Snow is measured with a (scroll down) keep going?.. not yet? Drum roll please! OK? a ruler. :) Usually snow is measured at several spots and the results are averaged. For official measurements, a snow board is often used.. Snow is measured hourly and the snow is then swept off. One inch of rain is equal to about 10 inches of snow. Dry snow has a 20 inches of snow to 1 inch of rain ratio, whereas a wet snow may only amount to 5 inches for each inch of water.

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(16580) Suzanne Wahl (12:16 EST): Many times, Millville, NJ has a different temperature (usually lower) from the surrounding area. Why is this?

(4679) Elliot Abrams - Chief Meteorologist; Senior Vice President: The soil in extreme southern New Jersey is very sandy, and this helps with radiational heat loss on clear nights. The effect of the sandy soil is somewhat like a snow cover, and clear calm nights with snow cover are among the coldest generally experieced at various places. Surrounding areas do not have the same soil conditions or level of "ruralness."

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(16582) Marc Lieberson (12:23 EST): Growing up in the 50's and 60's, it seemed to me as a kid we had more snow. Recently, we always seem to have snowstorms that turn into ice and rain. Back then I "seem to" remember having storms of all snow and big ones. Is this so.. has the "climate changed" or is this just imaginary as my life as a kid on my part? I know others of my age seem to have this same recollection?

(4678) Alex Sosnowski - Expert Senior Meteorologist: Patterns of big snowstorms seem to come in cycles, every 20-30 years or so. This does not imply the pattern is changing, as we do not have accurate records beyond about 100 years. Who knows what snowstorms were like in the US prior to the 1700's!! There is much better media coverage and more detail of storms now a days. All snow storms seem bigger when you are younger, as you are generally not as tall then and the mounds of snow seem mountainous. There were some big storms in the 60s, however in the winter of 72-73 there was less than a tenth of an inch of snow in Philly, a fact that has not been repeated there since. Alex Sosnowski

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