Poll: President, governor, senator races remain tight

Once in a generation, 3 top-ticket statewide contests are as closely fought as are this year's North Carolina elections for president, united states senator and governor.

And less often still, are the results of 2 of those 3 contests as important to the rest of the country as they may turn out to be in North Carolina in 2008.

In the election for President, in a state John McCain must hold if the GOP is to keep the White House, it's McCain 47%, Obama 47%.

An Obama win in North Carolina may ensure an electoral college victory for the Democrats in 2008. In the election for US Senator, in a state that could decide whether the Democrats achieve a filibuster-proof "super-majority" in the next Congress, incumbent Republican Elizabeth Dole and Democratic challenger Kay Hagan are effectively tied, 46% Hagan, 45% Dole. And in the election for the open seat of Governor of North Carolina, Republican Pat McCrory and Democrat Beverly Perdue are also inside of SurveyUSA's margin of sampling error, 46% McCrory, 43% Perdue.

Compared to an identical SurveyUSA tracking poll two weeks ago: McCain is down 2 points, Obama is up 1; Dole is up 1, Hagan is up 3, Libertarian Chris Cole is down 2; McCrory is flat, Perdue is down 2, but Libertarian Mike Munger is up 3. In the presidential race, most demographic sub-groups are stable, but there is movement among the less affluent to Obama and among the more affluent to McCain. In the Senate race, the contest is in single digits in greater Charlotte, Raleigh and Greensboro, with McCain up by double digits only in the less densely populated Southern and Coastal parts of the state. In the Governor contest, McCrory has lost striking ground to the Libertarian Munger among men and among the less affluent.

100K NC African Americans May Determine the Next President, the Governor & whether Democrats Have Filibuster-Proof Senate: Black turnout is key to forecasting not just who gets North Carolina's 15 electoral votes, but also whether the state elects a Democratic Governor and whether the state contributes a critical take-away to the Democratic effort to get to 60 Senators in Washington DC. McCain today leads 2:1 among whites. Obama leads 9:1 among blacks. In SurveyUSA's model, blacks are 20% of the North Carolina electorate.

However: If black turnout increases, with Barack Obama at the top of the ticket, from approximately 750,000 NC black voters to 850,000 NC black voters, it is possible that Obama wins North Carolina's 15 electoral votes, that Kay Hagan defeats Elizabeth Dole in the US Senate contest, and that Beverly Perdue defeats Pat McCrory in the North Carolina Governor's race. See the SurveyDNA brand hypothetical data set that gives you an exclusive window into how things change with slightly larger black turnout.

Filtering: 800 North Carolina adults were interviewed by SurveyUSA 10/18/08 through 10/20/08. Of them, 733 were registered to vote. Of them, 627 were determined by SurveyUSA to have already voted, or to be likely to vote on or before election day. Of those who tell SurveyUSA they have already voted: the Democrat Obama leads by 23 points, the Democrat Hagan leads by 19 points and the Democrat Perdue leads by 13 points.

1. Asked of 627 likely & actual voters
Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 4%

If the election for President were today, would you vote for ... (choices rotated) Republican John McCain? Democrat Barack Obama? Or one of the other candidates?

47% McCain (R)
47% Obama (D)
3% Other
3% Undecided

2. Asked of 627 likely & actual voters Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 4%

If the election for United States Senator were today, would you vote for (choices rotated) Republican Elizabeth Dole? Democrat Kay Hagan? Or Libertarian Chris Cole?

45% Elizabeth Dole (R)
46% Kay Hagan (D)
5% Chris Cole (L)
3% Undecided

3. Asked of 627 likely & actual voters
Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 4%

If the election for Governor were today, would you vote for (choices rotated) Republican Pat McCrory? Democrat Beverly Perdue? Or Libertarian Mike Munger?

46% Pat McCrory (R)
43% Beverly Perdue (D)
7% Mike Munger (L)
4% Undecided

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